聚焦人口安全:我国人口负增长演进趋势研判与应对策略分析
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C924.2

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国家社会科学基金重大项目( 21ZDA101 )


Focusing on Population Safety : Assessment on China's Future Negative Population Trend and Its Countermeasures
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    摘要:

    文章从人口安全的视角出发,基于第七次人口普查数据,利用DCMD三参数模型生命表和队列要素法,对我国死亡人口、旺盛期育龄妇女人口和劳动年龄人口进行预测和推演,综合研判未来我国人口负增长演进趋势及其特征。研究发现:一方面,随着新中国成立后两次生育高峰队列进入高龄,死亡人口将不断增加;另一方面,伴随1984-1990年出生队列逐步退出生育旺盛期,且后续进入的妇女数量不断缩减,育龄妇女规模萎缩、年龄结构老化,出生人口将持续降低。二者叠加导致未来我国人口规模下降,对此,应把握2031-2040年旺盛期育龄妇女规模扩大的机会,积极推进生育支持政策,激发生育潜能;挖掘人口负增长早期阶段低龄老龄化“人口红利”,尽快推行渐进式延迟退休政策。

    Abstract:

    This study, viewing from the lens of population security and drawing upon the seventh national census data, utilizes the DCMD three-parameter model life table and the cohort element method to forecast and project China's death population, the population of childbearing women age in their prime years and the working-age population, so as to comprehensively study the trend of China's negative population growth and its characteristics in the future. Findings suggest that over the next 30 years, on the one hand, with the aging of the two post-establishment birth booms in China, the death rate continues to rise; on the other hand, as the birth cohorts from 1984-1990 gradually move out of their prime childbearing years, and with fewer women entering this phase, there is a contraction in the number of women in their prime childbearing years, leading to an aging age structure and a continuous decline in birth. The combined effects of these two factors will result in a continuous decrease in China's population. In response, it's vital to seize the window of opportunity from 2031-2040 when the number of women in their prime childbearing years increases, actively promote support policies to stimulate fertility potential; tap into the significant "demographic dividend" of younger aging during the early stages of negative population growth and swiftly introduce a progressive policy of delayed retirement.

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米 红,汤晓彤.聚焦人口安全:我国人口负增长演进趋势研判与应对策略分析[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2023,38(6):81-92.
Mi Hong, Tang Xiaotong. Focusing on Population Safety : Assessment on China's Future Negative Population Trend and Its Countermeasures[J]. Journal of Changsha University of Science & Technology Social Science,2023,38(6):81-92.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-01
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